Prediction does not count; Building the Ark does!

2006-10-16

寫在香港大學

各位, 由16日起, 我放一星期假, 專心一致準備考試, 期間此blog 可能(永遠) 消失 (其實係想借個勢摺埋佢, 只因此blog click 點少到不堪入目, 低到我冇心機扑0野 / 冇力扑0野).

據site meter 0既統計, 我呢個blog 一日唔夠15人0黎visit (唔計repetitive vistor(s)). 以0甘0既擊點計算, 此blog 實屬浪費internet 資源同本人時間. 因此, 本人正考慮決定封印呢壇0野, 無謂再見笑人前.

當然, 每一次告別都係復出0既準備.

後會有期.

寫於香港大學圖書館4/f

2006-10-15

淺談1175

disclaimer: 我冇hold 1175, 亦冇任何interest. 以下全為我個人意見, 可能有違漏, 我唔擔保.

1175 剛安排0左一個zero interest rate CB, 籌10億, 為期3年, 換股價17.xx 較現價有3成到溢價. 3年之後, 如果投資者唔做conversion, 1175連本帶利科11.8億, 即每年大概還60m 息.

1175 一年做8億到生意, 賺2億幾, cash flow 大約3億. 其他不變, 60m interest 大概等如4成profit或 2成cash flow, 唔可以話小0野. 另外, 公司早前做過另一筆6億cb. 今次籌錢, 係為0左擴產.

1175過去3年投資0左10幾億擴產, 據financial statement, 營業額同return 都double 0左, 家下p/e 2x倍, 年內股價升0左一倍, 跡象顯示公司正處"大大力投資期", 而且從financing 方面睇, 公司可能以leverage 的方式做生意, 即70/30 出資模式.

個人意見如果要入1175, 公司要fulfill下列:-
1. 公司可以做到buy low, 要從成本方面下苦功, 令investor 有信心公司唔會有cyclical financial distress
2. 公司需要sell high 或 有可觀的營業增長去support 股價同投資
3. 公司的receivable 同個trade cycle 要短, 要compress cycle, 用compound interest 0既principle 去賺多少少錢.
4. 公司要增大payable 的length, 多retain cash, 以應急需.

back to very begining, 1175 做什麼生意?

0係大陸賣下飯盒俾大公司同做下酒樓0甘0羅.

你話佢做唔做到?

木宰羊

又: 大家樂0既margin 係10-12%

2006-10-14

剪報/評論

《A Libel Landmark 》

The Wall Street Journal Asia. Hong Kong:Oct 13, 2006. p. 12

Column Name: REVIEW & OUTLOOK (Editorial)

Publication title: The Wall Street Journal Asia. Hong Kong: Oct 13, 2006. pg. 12

"... ...

The Law Lords overturned two lower-court rulings, which found against The Journal, and held that the information in the article was in the public interest and had been reported responsibly. "The fact that the judge, with the advantage of leisure and hindsight, might have made a different editorial decision should not destroy the defence," Lord Hoffmann wrote. "That would make the publication of articles which are, ex hypothesi, in the public interest, too risky and would discourage investigative reporting."

In his opinion, Lord Bingham described The Journal as an "unsensational" newspaper, a charge to which we plead guilty. While the Jameel ruling won't matter much to Britain's tabloid press, it is likely to influence how "quality" newspapers go about investigative reporting. As another Law Lord, Baroness Hale, put it: "We need more such serious journalism in this country and our defamation law should encourage rather than discourage it."

... ..."


這個court case 幾得意, 記者會的某某應該會大做其文章. 下次public libel 有allegation時, 原訟人可能有難. 拭目以待拭目以待.

但我更有興趣的是:-

"The ruling should echo throughout the British Commonwealth, including in Australia, Canada, Hong Kong and -- dare we hope? -- Singapore. While Commonwealth countries now mostly have their own courts of final appeal, they still look to the Law Lords for guidance in interpreting the common law. Thanks to their Lordships, the world just got a little freer."

AWJ 果然唔怕死, 0岩0岩先同 Jameel打完官司, 0甘快又去撩d坡佬. 但AWJ 唔同安迪. xie, 唔使"瀉"d坡佬 (波妹就唔sure), 話晒佢地太上皇出晒名祟英. 哈哈哈~~~~~~

又, 其實唔要個"and" 都得. 畢竟我地背靠祖國, 國情為上.



******************

星島今日好似有份號外, 講07股市.

呢份0野我越睇越覺得唔對路, d用字、造句、排版熟口熟面, 好似唔知之前0係邊處睇過0甘.

終於, 0係我轉車仔前, 醒起我幾時睇過.

哈哈哈哈哈~~~

0個d所謂0既稿, 格式、用字、造句同阿屎sir、ken 0者、古裝武俠騎0里怪0個d大同少異, 什麼跟足買一年 賺到笑騎騎 (ibid) , 專家捉到路 唔愁升唔到 (ibid) ... ...

一路睇一路以為自己去緊會考講座.

都說中學是社會縮影!



************************

早前說會多鑽研股票, 可惜結果未如理想.

太忙喇, 2 個幾禮拜先勉強叫搞掂1隻, out 晒schedule ... ...

時間有限, 唔係真係想講下1175 呢隻0野.

有空再談.




************************

我一向認為有志投身金融界0既人應多睇娛樂版.

結論至今未曾動搖過.

2006-10-11

欲罷不能

真係欲罷不能. Reserve Bank of New Zealand 尋日 send 0左呢個message 俾我. 唔知贈慶定搞對抗(當然梗係有0甘0岩), 竟然0係 e. phelps 得獎, phillips curve 準備再受靶0既時候, 搞個0甘0既symposium, 真係幽默.

當然, 0個symposium 可能 focus on frontier research, 講0下nairu, 講0下 high frequency econometrics, 講0下whatever... ...

話時話, nz 過去7、8年經濟真係有聲有色. 唔知係咪真係 inflation targeting 0既原故呢? 詳情有待經濟學者去研究. 我齋睇、齋聽、齋talk同 cut & paste




***********************

The following press release was issued on behalf of the 2008 Phillips Symposium Committee a short time ago:

2008 Phillips Symposium Committee

Date 11 October 2006, 9.30am

NEWS RELEASE

Celebrating a unique Kiwi inventor

Tonight Dr Alan Bollard will give a presentation on the remarkable Kiwieconomist, AWH (Bill) Phillips. The presentation previews the Symposium"Markets and Models: Policy Frontiers in the AWH Phillips Tradition"that will be held in Wellington, New Zealand, 9-11 July 2008. The year2008 marks the 50th anniversary of Bill Phillips' most famous work, the Phillips Curve.

Dr Bill Phillips became well-known as an economist in 1958, when hepublished his influential work, on the relationship between inflation and unemployment, illustrated by the Phillips Curve. He regarded his1958 article (a "wet weekend's bit of work") as of only passing interest. Nevertheless, the 1958 article led to a re-shaping of macroeconomic policy for decades.

Bill Phillips' career embraced more than just the curve that carried hisname. His work also embraced economic modelling including the famous MONIAC machine (dynamic model of a working economy), stabilisation policy, econometrics, economic dynamics and economic development.

The 2008 Symposium is a collaboration between the annual New ZealandAssociation of Economists (NZAE) conference and the Econometric Society Australasian Meeting (ESAM).

Attracting the world's top economists, the symposium will place Phillips' work in the context of the history of economic thought, and will present the latest frontier work on economic theory, modelling and analysis.

Edmond Phelps and etc. issues

 From Lex Column, Financial Times, 10 Oct 2006

"
.... ...

Prof Phelps since devoted much of his attention to how the equilibrium rate of unemployment changes over time. One of his ideas may be especially relevant to the hotly debated question of how much US employment might have to fall to stave off recent inflationary pressures. It has been a bit of a mystery why the low unemployment rates of the late 1990s failed to trigger inflation. Prof Phelps's startling suggestion was that economists should take a closer look at asset prices, especially stocks.

High equity valuations suggest to companies that their assets - including a well-trained workforce - are more valuable than previously thought. Companies may then hire more workers and invest more in fixed assets while accepting more moderate price mark-ups. Many capital goods industries, notably construction, are highly labour intensive. For any given level of economy-wide demand, a stock market boom would lead to increased hiring and investment - and a lower equilibrium rate of unemployment.

... ..."

This may help in explaining the situation generally but at the same time it generally explains nothing. While one could acknowledge that the low inflation low unemployment scenario is a consequense of high equity valuation, one could at the same time raise an enquiry as to the underlying drift,if not boost, of the high equity. As usual, inflation is always a monetary phenomenon, an idea I bear in mind since my first debut to monetary theory, and I am very suspectible to anything deviate from this "caveat". But for your information, the QTM suggests that PQ = MV, and that says to determine inflation, there should be more than just looking at M, but also at Q and V, the latter of which is assumed to be more-or-less a constant over the past 40 years, perhaps.

How's Q change over time? Are there any change in the status quo?
 
Let the figure, economists and statistians speak of themselves.
 

P.S. A gentleman in Appledaily addressed Mr. Phelps as Neo-"Kings", an addressee plagued me over the night. For those of you who have an in-depth knowledge of Macro / "Kings", please could you advise if that is the case (I doubt it very much).

2006-10-10

累中記趣

《其一》

偶目《Economist》, 不知是巧合還是老編有慧眼, (半)長篇寫philips curve and others. 文章提到 / 帶出幾個issues, 值得細味:-

1. 點解unemployment 同 inflation 呢兩個topics 可以好似男人夢寐以求0既性能力一樣歷久不衰
2. 講philips curve 唔提 milton friedman 是有點那個. 個人認為friedman 應該同e. phelps 一齊share 今年0既nobel prize, particularly 當頌辭一開波(唔係李頌慈開波) 就正名 "The work of Edmund Phelps has deepened our understanding of the relation between short-run and long-run effects of economic policy. His contributions have had a decisive impact on economic research as well as policy. ".

以諾貝爾獎的selection criteria, 佛老絕對可以嬴多一次. 唔信, 請看看friedman 當年的頌辭 :-

"for his achievements in the fields of consumption analysis, monetary history and theory and for his demonstration of the complexity of stabilization policy"

esp. 佛老重多phelps 一番 --- monetary history!!

3. 文章提到globalization 對employment structure 或 NAIRU (拜託唔好問乜係nairu!) 的影響, 指cheap labor 令price structure 同 inflation 等問題變得較以前複雜, 令傳統以cpi 0黎account inflation 0既 paradigm 開始企唔穩. 今日(其實係尋日) Asian Wall Street Journal 0既editorial 指出美帝 0既tax revenue 近年拜globalization 所賜而急升(應該係因為out-sourcing 令成本dur 皮0既原故), 間接/直接支持住 American Great Challenge (budget deficit). 結果出現(短期?) 0左低通脹低失業0既現象. 當然文章作者冇提 (可能因証據不足) 由始產生出0黎0既 hot money / cheap money 對全宇宙金融市場0既影響.



=================


《其二》

美國決心封殺on-line gambling, 《Economist》認為此舉會加快美國on-line gambling 合法化, 理由如下:-

1. internet 無弗遠近
2. 英國已著手合法化
3. 1&2 只會令美國公司出手收購英國on-line gambling 0既公司, 谷肥d i-banker.
4. 肥水流去別人田 (唔好搞錯, 唔係毛記不日上演0個套《肥田》)
5. 死死氣legalize �


=================

《其三》

諗下諗下, 其實《money master》呢本書都幾搞鬼. 入面d 金錢怪物令我諗起《Gloomy Sunday》入面0個個仆街上校 --- 明明從事污穢不堪0既交易, 但0係吹捧下卻成了"英雄" (最後會否得劇中人物結局則不得而知)

當一件事去得太盡太perfect 0既時候, 就係時間諗諗世界上有冇0甘perfect 0既0野, 0甘大隻蚧?隨街跳.



=================

《其四》

中午去銀行搞事. 唔知係我詞不達意定係點, 我連續問teller 姐姐紅簿仔同integrated account 0既收費有冇分別, 佢一味識答"只要你全個integrated account有多過兩萬蚊資產, 呢個簿仔account 冇錢都得, 但銀行方面, 可能會每個月收你行政費."

當我唔耐煩話剪0左本簿後, 佢二話不說, 引刀成一快, 手起刀落, chap chap chap 三聲, 我0個陪0左我10幾年0既戶口就0甘從世間上消失.



=================

《其五》

今天偷懶, 唔讀書.

2006-10-09

Nobel Laureate in Economic Science 2006

Edmund S. Phelps 是自99年 R. Mudell 之後, 第一個獨得諾獎的經濟學者, 可喜可賀.
side issue: 肥院當年教 monetary theory 也有提過expectation-augmentation (當然佢唔夠膽教數, 否則全班只會剩低幾丁友, 或好似第一、二堂之後, 俾人煩到嘔), 結果break 0既時候俾鄰座0既鬍鬚仔?撚住佢 哈哈哈哈哈~~~
side issue ii: jj 當年教macro, 都係0係0甘易講少少expectation; joe wu 就因為講dynamic programing、bellman equation、同"pon-tree-ar-gan" 講得太high, 冇教到 (但佢教0左stigliz 0既efficiency wage).
提到expectation augmented philips curve, 不可不提m. friedman. 《price theory》 入面有一整個chapter 聲討philips curve, 很精彩的. 詳情可以問鬍鬚仔.
***************************
Press Release
9 October 2006

The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences has decided to award The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2006 to

Edmund S. Phelps

Columbia University, NY, USA

“for his analysis of intertemporal tradeoffs in macroeconomic policy”.

Short run – Long run
The work of Edmund Phelps has deepened our understanding of the relation between short-run and long-run effects of economic policy. His contributions have had a decisive impact on economic research as well as policy.

Low unemployment and low inflation are central goals of stabilization policy. During the 1950s and 1960s the view of a stable tradeoff between inflation and unemployment was established, the so-called Phillips curve. According to this, the price for reduced unemployment was a one-time increase of the inflation rate. Phelps challenged this view through a more fundamental analysis of the determination of wages and prices, taking into account problems of information in the economy. Individual agents have incomplete knowledge about the actions of others and must base their decisions on expectations. Phelps formulated the hypothesis of the expectations-augmented Phillips curve, according to which inflation depends on both unemployment and inflation expectations.

As a consequence, the long-run rate of unemployment is not affected by inflation but only determined by the functioning of the labor market. It follows that stabilization policy can only dampen short-term fluctuations in unemployment. Phelps showed how the possibilities of stabilization policy in the future depend on today's policy decisions: low inflation today leads to expectations of low inflation also in the future, thereby facilitating future policy making.
Another issue where intertemporal tradeoffs are of central importance concerns the desirable rate of capital formation. By foregoing consumption for investment in physical as well as human capital (education and research), today's generation can raise the welfare of future generations. Phelps clarified possible distributional conflicts among generations. He also showed that all generations may, under certain conditions, gain from changes in the savings rate. Phelps also pioneered the analysis of the importance of human capital for the diffusion of new technology and, hence, for growth.

2006-10-08

好店獻給你

中午和老媽去萬發吃飯. 兩個人兩樣食送、兩大dul 飯 (白飯煮得好) 誠惠50. 吃畢, 挺著大肚dum 高高興興行回家.

萬發的菜, 平、快、靚、正. 沒有花巧、沒有fusion、沒有大堆頭, 總之一味簡單同住家mood, 但吃過番尋味的人多的是 (包括我)

其實, simple is beautiful. 這個道理很簡單, 但執行絕不容易.

畢竟simple背後的是大功力, 要通透, 要苦工. 這苦工的苦不足為外人道, 涯不過的人, 或選short-cut, 或搞fusion, 結果馬非馬, 驢非驢, 弄巧故不成, 拙倒是100 分的做到了.

萬發沒有鮑、蔘、翅、肚, 沒有花巧百味, 有的只是飛入尋常百姓家的小炒小廚和舊時小店的人情味. 喜歡mou大排檔的人, 大概應該不會討厭萬發.


《萬發海鮮菜館》
青山道156號地下
電話 2386 6816
註: 晚飯預定較好, walk in 可以好大鑊

2006-10-07

寫於7月20日

post 寫於7月20日. 但我一直把它儲成draft, 冇post.

今日搵東西, 見到了, 決定按下postage.

家明的故事

家明是好男仔 (這個"好"要看你怎樣define了, 筆者認為他很仆街). 年來身邊不乏好女仔對他有好感, 可是(好老土地) 都給他一一拒絕了.

認識家明時, 我已經是"食屎"生了. 他有許多許多別的男仔可能沒有的東西, (他如是說. 我常戲言是否3蛋) 而他周圍的友人亦對他讚不絕口, 有的為文頌之、有的四圍唱好、有的對他佩服得可以.

但其實家明也有他的陰暗面.

家明一直認為他是好男仔. 對朋友仔他義無反顧、對家人他無微不至、對女友他百般的好. 可是, 最近一次見他時, 他告訴我 (唔知係咪飲大0左) 他覺得自己好撚賤 ("撚賤" 呢兩個字, 我想不到會出自他口 :-0 ).

他說他最近認識了一個女生. 他說她斯文、大方、有禮、好心地、... ... (下刪3百頌辭) , 是他"0甘大個仔" (佢大我好多, 是70年代的人) 見過最好的女仔. 他與她的認識來得很自然 --- 友人飯聚中相遇, 隨後單對單、然後走在一起. 他說她好錫他, 什麼事都不用他操心和勞氣, 大家有共同的嗜好 (是什麼我冇問) 說不盡的話題, 即俗話說的0岩晒"可車".

可惜, 世間豈能儘人意 (不然何需"山作黃金海作田"?). 他與她之間永遠有一個resolve 不了的問題 (正確點說是家明不是她) --- 他有女朋友!!!

那晚跟家明見面, 他說了很多很多他的苦惱. 他說他怕她會走, 怕她走了之後永遠再找不到第二個"0甘0岩0既人", 但同一時間, 他不懂如何同佢女朋友講 (畢竟佢地由中學開始已青梅竹馬) . 夾在中間, 他很懊惱. 他覺得自己好差、好賤、好罪惡. 對著她, 他的理智說他負了她, 他沒有資格說三道四; 對他的女友, 他抬不起頭 (我戲言[其實係落井下石]問他是否男人最痛. 他"厲"了我一眼, 漏了咀, "屌"了一聲), 因為他曾為了她, 曾瞞著她離去, 做了一些他過不了自己良心的事. 0個時我受少少酒精影響, 聽到有d 火滾, 我唔識趣告訴他 G.J. Stigler (? 還是M. Friedman) 曾說過人的良心(靈魂)有價, 只是有多低而矣. 結果聽後, 家明即時失控, 一拳就打埋0黎, 然後憤然離開.

呢件事之後, 我同家明就冇再聯絡. 但在友儕間還是偶然會聽到他的消息. 有時聽說他每年都會去一次旅行, 而且次次地點一樣; 有時聽說他專登去買幾枝daisy 放在案頭上 (家明他最討厭花); 有時聽說他會去百老匯電影中心睇戲 (家明他平素最喜歡《新紮師妹III》0個類戲) ; 有時聽說他夜了無人時, 他會點起香煙, 獨個兒在窗檯前沉思同自斟自飲 (家明他唔食煙唔飲酒的)

忽然, 想起了劉華的歌. 在此寄予家明

"情若真, 不必歎相見恨晚 縱隔千里 ... ... "


(以上真人真事, 但囿於人物角色太敏感, 有些地方我修改0左.
願家明他早日處理好自己的事, 可以與她開開心心, 快快樂樂
立此存檔 7.10.2006 於陋室)

2006-10-06

到地獄之路

Extract from The Asian Wall Journal, 6 Oct. 2006

"The really amazing phenomenon is that, for half a century, his predecessors resisted the temptation to tax and meddle. Though a colony of socialist Britain, Hong Kong followed a laissez-faire capitalist policy, thanks largely to a British civil servant, John Cowperthwaite. Assigned to handle Hong Kong's financial affairs in 1945, he rose through the ranks to become the territory's financial secretary from 1961-71. Cowperthwaite, who died on Jan. 21 this year, was so famously laissez-faire that he refused to collect economic statistics for fear this would only give government officials an excuse for more meddling. His successor, Sir Philip Haddon-Cave, coined the term "positive noninterventionism" to describe Cowperthwaite's approach." --- Milton Friedman 76' Laureate of Alfred Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Science

當人人逆水行舟免墮深淵時, 總有些人喜歡順水推舟(沉淪)步向地獄.

通往地獄之路由善意(如有)組成 (ibid F. Von Hayek)


**********************

Extract from Lex Column 6 Oct. 2006 The Financial Times

"... ... Investors in listed assets are confronted with the reality of a short-term price slide and they do not like it. Since the natural time frame for private equity investments is in years, fluctuating prices in listed funds were bound to pose a problem for investors with short-term horizons... ...

Private equity partners like the idea of listings because they provide them with permanent capital. But recent experience suggests that fund listings are not the way to go... ..."


是妳嗎? 手執Value 的一個. Partner曾在夢裡, 暗中相約在上市... ... (歌改 [不是大陸股改] 天濛光一首情歌)

2006-10-05

Surprise、Surprise、Surprise of the Day

1.) dada Interlude

2.) wongleona.blogspot.com

人壽保險

人一世, 除0左食0野、扑0野、玩0野之外, 我真係諗唔到有咩其它0野可以令我興奮莫名. 可惜0既係, 根據80/20 理論, 人一生有大概有8成0既清醒時間係用0係無聊或痛苦身上, 結果要傷神諗d可能將會或唔會發生0既事, 而為了應付呢d econ佬或芬佬所謂0既contingency, 人生於是乎要有計劃, 即且(我冇打錯字, 此乃祖的古字, 音"早", 象形, 男性生殖器) 國好自負0既marcoeconomic tuning 0個類.

我, 一個人形物體, 自然少不了要計劃一番. 我曾經計劃要10歲harvard phd 畢業、20歲做cambridge 0既don、30歲嬴2次或以上"怒睥" prize(s)、40歲賺人生第一個1,000億、50歲征服全世界、60歲發明不死藥、70歲之後長生唔死阻住個地球轉. 可惜我所謂0既plan 除0左係讀書0個個近lb 之外 (23歲就"食屎"... ... 唉~~), 其他冇一個materialized 到.

故事教訓非常明顯, 就係我計劃0既計劃好唔掂. 於是乎我決定學d細un上市公司0甘搞paradigm shift, 搞轉型 (記住千其、千其、千其唔好用"退而求其次", 因為0甘你間公司係抽唔到水0既), 以點樣減少自己0既"痛指" (痛苦指數) 開始. 苦思良久, 我終於覺悟到原來減少"痛指"需由減少家庭負擔起開刀. 尢是如此, 我決定買保險, 買一份令我360 天旋地轉, 左find 右un 都唔會有後顧之憂放100万個心0既"安心"fixed term 人壽保險.

各位需每月ump 700大洋供單養(經紀)仔0既豬生豬太mei 生mei 太, 我知我下面講0既0野可能會令你0地眼火爆, 所以先fore-warn 同警戒台端:-


我份單每月只供hkd80蚊!!!


點解可以0甘平? 一分錢錢一分貨仔已矣. 但就我粗略估計, 我呢份單0既coverage 0係大前題/假設我公司係一個有責任0既顧主下應該夠晒我呢挺人.

0甘我買0左d乜?

哈哈哈, 齋我條賤命, 冇saving、冇investment、冇紅利、冇bonus、冇medical、冇手術/入廠、冇危疾、冇terminal desease、... ...

簡單0甘講, 以一份齋life 0既保單做base, 你諗下諗下就會發現其實insurance company 0係好好好好好賺0既行業 (80蚊包admin、agent佣金、claim reserve、... ...), 而你買0左月供7舊幾或更多0既單, 其實可能有點係閣下risk aversion 0既consequential behavior (當然可以你assymectric information).

講完, 收工, 繼續讀保險考試.

2006-10-04

串屎、檸檬&金錢之王

我有搭車睇書0既習慣. 唔知點解, 0係0架車0度無所事事我會周身唔聚財, 硬係有d 0野?手先覺得有d安全感.

今晚收工, 照舊搭隧巴返歸. 安坐後, 我如舊心無旁鶩睇我0既money master (早前係the undercover economists) . 車仔過0左海, road show 忽然響起 (其實boardcasting 係冇停過, 只係我偏聽) 一段熟口熟面0既melody

"男生們是非, 我細細聲講給你. 我坐你隔離, 像對孖公仔報喜......."

我跟住放低本書, 心一路跟住0個melody 一句一句哼落去.

記得 twins 呢首歌上台時我讀緊year 2, 而我係0係joyce 宿舍0度第一次聽twins 0既.

記得0個時為0左份term paper 一早貢0左去佢hall 開工 (唔記得有冇走堂). 11:00 度, 小白返0黎, 吹0左兩下水之後佢就問我有冇聽過twins, 然後一、二、三以舜雷不及掩耳9秒9 0既速度開電腦播twins, 播0既就係今晚0係大狗0度柔弦0既《女校男生》.

"串屎"之後出場0既係"新四哥". 播0既0個首歌仔好似叫《玉蝴蝶》. "新四哥"最紅0個期我應該係中、大學生. 0個時去唱k, 0係k房聞歌喪fing 同唱"醫神" 、"新四哥"、"伊麵"0既"古(惑)仔歌"、"跑車歌" (即史兄口中0既0個首 "含完又要舐") and 浪人情歌係指定動作 (但唔係我). 在耳濡目染0既環境下, 我多少強記0左幾句 (天真地以為0甘樣就可以有0野旁身, 第二時0係d女面前唱幾句lum 下女、扮下情聖、威幾下), 勉強可以搭下豬咀. 當然我係完全唔知自己唱乜q, 但知道自己唱乜q 都冇乜用, 因為0係k房就正如你0係老蘭蒲搵"1夜企"冇人想知你0係乜博士一樣 (性愛博士另計) , 冇人有興趣知你唱乜、冇人有興趣知你點解0甘high、冇人有興趣知你有冇走音, 只有人有興趣知你有冇走光、有興趣知你有冇$同有興趣知你有冇call 友校女生0黎happy (但我唱0甘耐中學k, 次次都係齋仔場, dry 爆).

但以上一切已成過去, 俱往矣.

今晚搭車偶聽 (可恨永冇偶遇) 兩歌. 覺得呢d好似已經係上世紀0既產物, 感覺怪怪, 有種莫名其妙0既脫節感. 江湖傳聞, 今期最hit 0既好似係m字頭、hall 1 c、衛x (x = 蘭 or c) ... ...

********************

返到屋企, 揭壹仔睇. 今期《豪乳look》訪問林志美 (唔好睇錯, 唔係墮馬爆波0個個叫你"?友、?友"0既台灣名毛"痴ling"). 文章唔係寫得特別好但就draw 到我0既attention.

點解?

唔講喇, 畢竟一個知道志美唔知"痴ling"0既佬都係小雪為妙

(又: 小雪何許人? 咪就係0個個要去安慰(撫)菜小姐0既榮譽主席0個仔0既人個老婆0羅 --- 詳見某年某月某期0既壹仔cover story)

2006-10-03

Lex Column

FT 、AWJ 同 Economist 係三份不可多得0既publications. 我依家肯一年科5舊幾水join circle of friends 都係因為貪佢個data base 有齊晒呢三份0野 (當然同埋其他academic journal 好似 AER、JPE、JLE、JEP、... ... [唔知我講乜唔緊要, 因為上述全部都係小小小小小眾毒物, 唔識同唔睇損失係"司路"]).

FT 必睇lex column. lex 0既安排有d似信報0既余x賢 (當然呢個比較極不恰當, 因為"明顯"係信報抄lex, 同埋余錦x 0既scale、功力 inter alias 完全唔係人地0個皮, 但之但係0係一個普遍男人冇蛋蛋0既社會, 有一粒蛋蛋0既人已經可以係猛男), 一個筆名, 各自表述 (當然, 就如basic 0羅一樣, 這個表述唔係unconditinal 的). 人在江湖而唔睇lex 其實會好蝕. 試諗下, 當阿bill、阿chris、阿湘湘同泉仔日日都會睇下, 以便business lunch 0既時候同人exchange 下0既時候, 我地呢d馬前卒又點可以唔煲定旁身. (邊個係阿bill、阿chris、阿湘湘同泉仔? 屌, 乜你0甘"背"0架, 連Stephen green、christropher pratt、郭炳湘、同鄭海泉都唔知!! 0甘又係唔怪得你, 你點敢0甘叫佢地) 坊間閒言, lex 0既寫手, 粒粒皆星 (有d係"屌0拿星" 即星級交易員 star dealer), 而且絕不欺場. 炮炮打真.

AWJ 麻煩少少, 基本上我係fly 0黎睇. 冇計啦, 鬼叫自己唔係老細, 可以坐大班椅, un un 腳歎報紙咩. 雖然係0甘, 但 awj 0既頭4個pages 我基本上都唔會錯過, 盡量0係夜晚搵周公前睇埋先zzz..zzzzzzzz

Economist 就冇得頂. 唔睇一定走寶. 乜0野econ 都唔理, 每期齋睇"墓誌銘"都已經回0左25%本. 如果睇埋 business 同 economic & finance 兩個sections, 0甘就穩賺冇甩拖, 回報可觀.

題外話, 如果閣下睇晒上述之後重有時間同閑情, 可以考慮下睇埋每日0既《信報》, 每星期一本0既壹仔0既a、b 書0既頭條、《非常人語》同埋《豪語錄》.

計下計下, 如果你睇晒上面d0野, 你一日起碼睇45分鐘報紙雜誌, 但呢個只係warm up, 未計我未推介0既blog links.

2006-10-02

小統計

《天勝》

非正式統計, 天勝番尋味指數高達70%.

我是2005年10月第一次去天勝的. 05年生日, 肥蛋問去邊0度食飯興祝, 我二話不說就話去天勝. 自始, 就同呢間0架仔舖結下不解緣 --- 朋友食飯, 去天勝; 學生 farewell, 去天勝 (本來唔係去天勝0既); 舊同學聚會, 去天勝; 約靚女食飯, 去天勝; friday party 去天勝... ... 數數手指, 呢年都去0左天勝10幾次.

各位, 呢間0架仔館係掂0架. per head cost 大概120-150 到 (午餐平dd ~90), 推介:-

1. 薯仔煮牛肉 (前菜)
2. 銀雪魚
3. 日式牛腩
4. 各款剌生 (e.g. 螺)
5. 拉麵/烏冬
6. 三色雞翼

不過去之前, 最好定位先, 因為呢間0野好日本化, 一晚做1.5轉生意 --- 佢地預你傾足一晚偈, 吹足一晚水, 面紅耳綠先閃, 唔會好似d香港餐廳0甘趕客.

當然, 如果閣下銀彈充足、 又或者想0係條女面前充下大頭鬼、又或者想請我食日本0野, 可以諗下去:-

1.見城 (尖沙咀棉登徑)
2. 鹿悅 (灣仔君悅酒店)
3. 松菱 (hkec) <--如有記錯, 請指正

《Gloomy Sunday》

在友人的推波助瀾下, 看了《Gloomy Sunday》. 電影的主題曲有死亡之律的美譽. 據說(只是據說) 有好多人真的在聽出了弦外之音, 在一曲終結後, 回歸上帝懷抱云云... ...

電影的故事簡單, 雖然劇力不強, 但節奏控制得宜. 除了起始的部份有點令我摸不著頭腦外 (個人認為前35分鐘可以以別的方法去處理), 其餘的地方是相當不錯的, 至少 (0拿, 呢個係minimum) 唔會有睇完《剛紮妹妹III》後的那種強烈被騙的"簡0者".

上網search Gloomy Sunday, 你會發現有不少的資料, 閑錄如下:-

http://www.answers.com/topic/gloomy-sunday-ein-lied-von-liebe-und-tod (關於電影)

http://www.answers.com/gloomy%20sunday (關於歌)




不日上演:

《瘋狂的石頭》

 
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