A Few Notes on US Politics and Economy

It is the expectation which matters!


"Unemployment has remained sluggishly high in part because both small and large companies have been reluctant to take on additional employees in an uncertain and threatening environment. Perhaps that is good politics, but the use of presidential and congressional powers against business is surely not good economics." - Gary Becker

http://www.becker-posner-blog.com/2010/07/the-abuse-of-presidential-power-becker.html


"Many of the President’s legislative initiatives, in particular the health reform law, the just-enacted financial regulatory reform law, and the credit card law of last year, have increased the uncertainty of the economic environment for business. These laws really haven’t settled anything; it will take years of regulatory implementation before their full impact can be determined. But in addition business has to deal with the unpredictable exercise by the President of an uncanalized extra-legal authority to bend business to his wishes.

It is no wonder that the economic recovery appears to be progressing so slowly." - Richard Posner

http://www.becker-posner-blog.com/2010/07/abuse-of-presidential-power-posner.html

"In sum, these new budget data show three things: First, the deficit is exploding because government spending is exploding. Second, the tax increase proposed by President Obama would not have a material effect on the exploding deficit. Third, we need a new approach to health care reform if we are to control government spending and wind down the deficit." - John Taylor

http://johnbtaylorsblog.blogspot.com/2010/07/new-data-show-debt-problem-is-spending.html

最低工資２﹣負入息稅

問：保障勞工「利益」，除０左就最低工資立法外，重有冇

其 他alternative？

答：

有。但先此聲明，我冇詳細研究過以下「建議」。

「兩害取其輕」，政府其實可以考慮引入負入息稅。即納入稅 網者收入少於某數，政府補貼有關「低收入人士」。假設納 稅人年入60,000。０係現行機制下該納稅人不用納稅 （收入低於個人免稅額）。負入息稅下，該納稅人非但不用 納稅，而且會有錢收，其「額外收入」為個人免稅額同年入差的 一個百分比 （e.g. 15%）。

問：有咩好處？

答：

相對地比較「公平」，而且又可以「幫補」下低收入人士。

負入息稅嘅其中一個hiden assumption 係人會努力向上 ﹣俾心機搵多Ｄ。

負入息稅其實係一個由政府operate 嘅全民consumption smoothening prog. 一般０黎講，人嘅一生收入分佈係低高低 （年輕時低，中年高，老年低）。負入息稅係政府出手（擔保） 幫市民smoothen consumption (income) pattern，將部份未來收入折現。或更簡單講，負入息稅纇似一個annuity.

負入息稅當中有個幾個好處：

１．可能有Ｄ人永遠唔使幫，於是佢０個份可以用０黎幫其他人
２．相對最低工資，負入息稅對企業營運嘅影響比較低
３．（我主觀認為）對勞動市場嘅影響比較少

有利有弊。負入息稅一定有work disincentive。其中嘅可能負面影響有：
１．政府要削減開支（個人認為係正面）﹣雖然我覺得有人到時 會要求政府加稅rather than 政府cut budget
２．部份低收入人士會自願選擇或被迫接受更低薪酬

問：得唔得０架？

答：

實行嘅其中一個問題係「自甘墮落」者有幾多。

Anyway,０係香港應該唔得。

問：點解？香港「自甘墮落」者多？

答：非也。冇外國經驗俾香港「借鑑」，你覺得香港會身先士卒 嘛？

題外話，milton friedman 好似提倡過負入息稅。可以搵佢Ｄ書參考下。

最低工資

有好幾位友人提及最低工資，旁觀者有如下數點補充：

１．成本不影響價格

２．marginal cost 上升，其中一個含意係marginal revenue / benefit 相對較高嘅企業先可以０係long-run 生存。於是企業一係「升呢」，唔係就廢盡心思壓止mar

ginal cost 上升。

邊邊易Ｄ？我係企管外行人，不曉得。

前者，實屬可貴，因為其含意係產品質素「應該」會上升

３．勞動力乃生產要素（input)，走唔出laws of derived demand 的４指山

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hicks-Marshall_laws_of_derived_demand

低薪工人勞動市場結構如何？其工作行業結構又如何？

０係此framework 下，最低工資立法後果如何？

４．何為pareto optimum?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pareto_efficiency

最低工資又是否pareto optimum？

如不是？其立法誘因何在？

５．假如真係立法（very likely)，政府有何妙方減少有關法例對市場的衝擊（即各反對立法者的反對理據）？

*雖社會普遍認為商人傷人，但其反對最低工資原因非全無道 理。